Resolute Square

Let's Stay Focused On All The Good Economic News

Growth is strong, inflation is way down, stock market up - let's take the wins
Credit: Official White House Photo by Cameron Smith
Published:June 15, 2023

*Published with the generous permission of Simon Rosenberg. Read more of his important work on his Hopium substack.

By Simon Rosenberg

We’ve had a lot of good economic news in recent weeks. Let’s review: 

Dems = growth, Rs = recession - Joe Biden is the third consecutive Democratic President who has brought strong growth, lower deficits, and American progress. The last three Republican Presidents all brought recession, higher deficits, and American decline. Source - With Democrats Things Get Better

Joe Biden Has Been A Good President. Despite Enormous Challenges His Economic Plan Is Working - Under Biden: 

  • 7 times as many jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents COMBINED - 13.1m now
  • In last few months record lows in unemployment, uninsured, poverty rates
  • US has had the strongest economic recovery in G7
  • GDP growth under Biden over 3%, 3x what it was under Trump
  • Last month’s 339,000 jobs = 3 years of job growth under Bushes and Trump
  • The deficit went up every year under Trump, has come down every year under Biden. New budget deal with Rs keeps it moving downward. 
  • Wages and new business formation continue to come in at very elevated levels. The Black unemployment last month was the lowest ever recorded
  • The GDNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed has GDP growth coming in at over 2% this quarter, meaning we are not headed towards recession
  • Job satisfaction is at an all-time high

Source - A Blistering June Jobs Report, It’s Time For A Big Rethink on How We Poll and Talk About The Economy

Inflation Is Coming Back Down To Pre-Pandamic, Pre-Russian Invasion Levels. This is Very Good News - The twin shocks of COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine made inflation a dangerous global phenomenon, which was, of course, a central tactic Russia used to try to weaken Western resolve against his aggression. Last year at this time, shortly after the Russian invasion, inflation spiked to over 9% on an annualized basis. Last month it had come down all the way to 1.2% on an annualized basis and has been at 2.2% annualized over the last 3 months. This is well within the Fed’s traditional inflation target and suggests the economy is on the verge of having gotten to the other side of these twin shocks. It is all very good news. Source: More Good News on Inflation.

Not only has America’s recovery from COVID been the best in the G7, but inflation remains 50% higher in Europe and more than double in the UK. 

The stock market is having a good run - after a bit of a rough patch, the various US stock indexes have had some good weeks, and the Dow is now up more than 20% since Election Day, 2020. 

We are starting to see real data on the positive impact of the President’s investment agenda - In the last Congress, the Democrats made far-sighted investments in our infrastructure, the energy transition, and our people that will drive American growth for a generation to come, and restored our global leadership in the fight against climate change. We are starting to see the early impact of these investments and strategies in the data. Look at this remarkable graph from Steve Rattner, using FRED data - the amount of money American companies are spending to build plants and expand here at home has DOUBLED in a single year. 

Friends, think about what Joe Biden has had to deal with - unprecedented domestic political instability, COVID, the Russian invasion of Ukraine,, and the food and energy shocks it brought. And yet here we are with the US economy having had the best recovery of any advanced nation in the world; historically low unemployment, poverty, and uninsured rates; Trump’s enormous deficit has been brought way down; inflation now returning to more traditional levels; no recession on the horizon; Putin has faltered, the West has been reinvigorated: the investments we’ve made will drive American prosperity for a generation to come and re-established us a global leader against climate change. Altogether, it is a remarkable track record, and the country is clearly far better off today due to his Presidency. 

As I wrote earlier this week, with all that is going right, the central GOP attack on Biden - that he’s been a bad President - feels hollow and spent now and will be increasingly difficult for the Rs to sustain. 

It’s why I think we’ve started seeing the Rs test out a new attack in recent days - leftist dictator jailing his political enemies. Like the Biden bad President attack, it’s ridiculous, but it is one we will have to engage forcefully in the days to come. 

Friends, Joe Biden has been a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong. Let’s be loud and proud and tell this story as aggressively as we can to all our networks. The American people deserve to be able to take the wins when they come and not have to keep living in the darkness MAGA has been bringing for so many years now.